Spatiotemporal modeling of the potential range distributions of Usnea in the Philippines under changing climate scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60923/issn.2531-7342/23308Keywords:
Climate change, fruticose lichen, Philippines, MaxEnt, ecological nicheAbstract
This study presents the first ecological niche model for the lichen genus Usnea in the Philippines, utilizing MaxEnt to project both current and future habitat suitability under two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 1-2.6 and 3-7.0) using EC-Earth3-Veg and MIROC6 models. Spatially filtered occurrence records and selected bioclimatic variables were used to build and optimize the model through the ENMeval R package. Results revealed that while Usnea currently occupies limited high-suitability areas, projections indicate a slight expansion in suitable habitats, especially in upland regions, driven by probable thermal niche shifts. Mean diurnal range (BIO2) is the dominant predictor under present conditions, whereas mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10) controls future scenarios. Despite this, regional declines were observed in Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, SoCCSKSarGen, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, which are areas characterized by warming and seasonal drying. These findings highlight both the potential resilience and vulnerability of Usnea, offering critical insights for conservation strategies in tropical montane ecosystems.
References
Aiello‐Lammens ME, Boria RA, Radosavljevic A, Vilela B, Anderson RP (2015) spThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography 38(5):541–545. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01132
Allen JL, Lendemer JC (2016) Climate change impacts on endemic, high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot. Biodiversity Conservation 25(3):555–568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1071-4
Almadrones-Reyes KJ, Dagamac NHA (2018) Predicting local habitat suitability in changing climate scenarios: Applying species distribution modelling for Diderma hemisphaericum. Current Research in Environmental & Applied Mycology 8(5):492‒500. https://doi.org/10.5943/cream/8/5/2
Anderson JT, Song B (2020) Plant adaptation to climate change—Where are we? Journal of Systematics and Evolution 58(5):533–545. https://doi.org/10.1111/jse.12649
Aptroot A, Stapper NJ, Košuthová A, Van Herk K (2021) Lichens as an indicator of climate and global change. In: Climate Change (Letcher TM, ed), Third edition. Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands, pp. 483–497. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00023-2
Armstrong RA (2017) Adaptation of lichens to extreme conditions. In: Plant Adaptation Strategies in Changing Environment (V. Shukla, S. Kumar, N. Kumar, eds). Springer, Singapore, pp. 1–27. Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6744-0_1
Asplund J, Wardle DA (2017) How lichens impact on terrestrial community and ecosystem properties. Biological Reviews 92(3):1720–1738. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12305
Burgess MG, Ritchie J, Shapland J, Pielke R (2021) IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Research Letters 16(1):014016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcdd2
Comia-Geneta G, Reyes-Haygood SJ, Salazar-Golez NL, Seladis Ocampo NA, Samuel-Sualibios MR, Dragamac NHA, Buebos-esteve DE (2024) Development of a novel optimization modeling pipeline for range prediction of vectors with limited occurrence records in the Philippines: a bipartite approach. Modelling Earth Systems and Environment 10:3995–4011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-024-02005-3
Cotrina Sánchez A, Rojas Briceño NB, Bandopadhyay S, Ghosh S, Torres Guzmán C, Oliva M,Guzman BK, Salas López R (2021) Biogeographic distribution of Cedrela spp. genus in Peru using MaxEnt Modeling: a conservation and restoration approach. Diversity 13(6):261. https://doi.org/10.3390/d13060261
Dagamac NHA, Bauer B, Woyzichovski J, Shchepin ON, Novozhi YK, Schnittler M (2021) Where do Nivicolous myxomycetes occur? Modeling the potential worldwide distribution of Physarum albescens. Fungal Ecology 53:101079. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2021.101079
De Marco Jr P, Nobrega CC (2018) Evaluating collinearity effects on species distribution models: An approach based on virtual species simulation. PLOS ONE, 13(9), e0202403. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202403
Dechimo Jr AA, Buot Jr IE (2023) Biophysical assessment of the plant biodiversity of Northern Negros Natural Park, Negros Island, Philippines. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity 24(1):583-602. https://doi.org/10.13057/biodiv/d240167
dela Cruz TEE, Timbreza LP, Sangvichien E, Notarte KIR, Santiago KAA (2023) Comparative study on the antimicrobial activities and metabolic profiles of five Usnea species from the Philippines. Journal of Fungi 9(11):1117. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof9111117
Dent J, Curran T, Rafat A, Buckley H (2013) Microhabitat variation in Usnea biomass on mountain beech in Nina Valley, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Botany 51(4):328–333. https://doi.org/10.1080/0028825x.2013.825633
Devkota S, Dymytrova L, Chaudhary RP, Werth S, Scheidegger C (2019) Climate change-induced range shift of the endemic epiphytic lichen Lobaria pindarensis in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The Lichenologist 51(2):157–173. https://doi.org/10.1017/s002428291900001x
Döscher R, Acosta M, Alessandri A, Anthoni P, Arsouze T, Bergman T, Bernardello R, Boussetta S, Caron LP, Carver G, et al. (2022) The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. Geoscience Model Development 15(7):2973–3020. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022
Ellis CJ (2019) Climate change, bioclimatic models and the risk to lichen diversity. Diversity 11(4):54. https://doi.org/10.3390/d11040054
Esseen PA, Rytterstam J, Atrena A, Jonsson BG (2023). Long-term dynamics of the iconic old-forest lichen Usnea longissima in a protected landscape. Forest Ecology and Management 546:121369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121369
Fois M, Cuena-Lombraña A, Fenu G, Bacchetta G (2018) Using species distribution models at local scale to guide the search of poorly known species: review, methodological issues and future directions. Ecological Modelling 385:124–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.018
Galinato M, Baguinon JRC, Santiago KAA (2018) Review of the lichen genus Usnea in the Philippines. Studies in Fungi 3(1):39–48. https://doi.org/10.5943/sif/3/1/6
Galinato MGM, Mangubat CB, Leonor DS, Cababa GRC, Cipriano BPS, Santiago KAA (2017) Identification and diversity of the fruticose lichen Usnea in Kalinga, Luzon Island, Philippines. Current Research in Environmental and Applied Mycology 7(4):249–257.
Garcia RA, Cabeza M, Rahbek C, Arajo MB (2014) Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity. Science 344(6183):1247579. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1247579
Gasulla F, Del Campo EM, Casano LM, Gura A (2021) Advances in understanding of desiccation tolerance of lichens and lichen-forming algae. Plants 10(4):807. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants10040807
Gauslaa Y (2014) Rain, dew, and humid air as drivers of morphology, function and spatial distribution in epiphytic lichens. The Lichenologist 46(1):1–16. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0024282913000753
Gerlach A, Clerc P, Lücking R, Moncada B, Caballero Nobleza J, Ohmura Y, Dal Forno M (2023) The genus Usnea (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) in the southern Philippines: a first phylogenetic approach. The Lichenologist 55(6):451–480. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0024282923000579
Haesen S, Lembrechts JJ, De Frenne P, Lenoir JRMH, Aalto J, Ashcroft MB, Kopecky M, Luoto M, Maclean I, Nijs I (2021) ForestTemp: sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests. Global Change Biology 27(23):6307–6319. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15892
Hirzel AH, Le Lay G, Helfer V, Randin C, Guisan A (2006) Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences. Ecological Modelling 199(2):142–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.05.017
Holzmann KL, Walls RL, Wiens JJ (2023) Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change. Ecology Letters 26(11):1877–1886. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14303
Jamilano-Llames LC, dela Cruz TEE (2025) Comparative antagonistic activities of endolichenic fungi isolated from the fruticose lichens Ramalina and Usnea. Journal of Fungi 11(4):302. https://doi.org/10.3390/jof11040302
Jiao S, Lu Y (2020) Abundant fungi adapt to broader environmental gradients than rare fungi in agricultural fields. Global Change Biology 26(8):4506–4520. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15130
Jonsson AV, Moen J, Palmqvist K (2008) Predicting lichen hydration using biophysical models. Oecologia 156(2):259–273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-008-0990-5
Jüriado I, Kämärä M, Oja E (2016) Environmental factors and ground disturbance affecting the composition of species and functional traits of ground layer lichens on grey dunes and dune heaths of Estonia. Nordic Journal of Botany 34(2):244–255. https://doi.org/10.1111/njb.00936
Khwarahm NR (2025) MaxEnt-based distribution modeling of the invasive species Phragmites australis under climate change conditions in Iraq. Plants 14(5):768. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14050768
Klamerus-Iwan A, Kozłowski R, Przybylska J, Solarz W, Sikora W (2020) Variability of water storage capacity in three lichen species. Biologia 75(6):899–906. https://doi.org/10.2478/s11756-020-00437-7
Koo K, Park S, Seo C (2017) Effects of climate change on the climatic niches of warm-adapted evergreen plants: Expansion or contraction? Forests 8(12):500. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120500
Lembrechts JJ, Nijs I, Lenoir J (2019) Incorporating microclimate into species distribution models. Ecography 42(7):1267–1279. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03947
Li Y, Li M, Li C, Liu Z (2020) Optimized maxent model predictions of climate change impacts on the suitable distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China. Forests 11(3):302. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030302
Llait CO (2024) Tree species composition and diversity in a secondary forest along the Sierra Madre Mountain Range in Central Luzon, Philippines: Implications for the conservation of endemic, native, and threatened plants. Journal of Zoological and Botanical Gardens 5(1):51–65. https://doi.org/10.3390/jzbg5010004
Muscarella R, Galante PJ, Soley‐Guardia M, Boria RA, Kass JM, Uriarte M, Anderson RP (2014) ENM eval: an R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for MAXENT ecological niche models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5(11):1198–1205. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12261
Nash TH, Gries C (1995) The response of lichens to atmospheric deposition with an emphasis on the Arctic. Science of The Total Environment 160–161:737–747. https://doi.org/10.1016/0048-9697(95)04407-R
O’Donnell MS, Ignizio DA (2012) Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States. U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 691:1–10. https://doi.org/10.3133/ds691
Omann I, Stocker A, Jager J (2009) Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: an application of the DPSIR approach. Ecological Econonomics 69(1):24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.01.003
Oravec P, Wittlinger L, Máliš F (2023) Endangered forest communities in central Europe: mapping current and potential distributions of Euro-Siberian steppic woods with Quercus spp. in South Slovak Basin. Biology 12(7):910. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology12070910
Peck LS (2011) Organisms and responses to environmental change. Marine Genomics 4(4):237–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margen.2011.07.001
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190(3–4):231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
Phillips SJ, Dudík M, Schapire RE (2004) A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-First International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML ’04). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, p. 83. https://doi.org/10.1145/1015330.1015412
Prateeksha P, Paliya BS, Bajpai R, Jadaun V, Kumar J, Kumar S, Upreti DK, Singh BR, Nayaka S, Joshi Y, et al. (2016) The genus Usnea: a potent phytomedicine with multifarious ethnobotany, phytochemistry and pharmacology. RSC Advances 6(26):21672–21696. https://doi.org/10.1039/C5RA24205C
Sander BO, Wassmann R, Palao LK, Nelson A (2017) Climate-based suitability assessment for alternate wetting and drying water management in the Philippines: a novel approach for mapping methane mitigation potential in rice production. Carbon Management 8(4):331–342. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2017.1362945
Santiago KAA, dela Cruz TEE, Ting ASY (2021) Diversity and bioactivity of endolichenic fungi in Usnea lichens of the Philippines. Czech Mycology 73(1):1–19. https://doi.org/10.33585/cmy.73101
Santiago KAA, dela Cruz TEE, Ting ASY (2022) Endolichenic fungi from common Usnea lichens found in a montane forest in Malaysia: a study on diversity and bioactivity profiling. Asian Journal of Mycology 5(2):18–37. https://doi.org/10.5943/ajom/5/2/3
Shrestha G, Petersen SL, St Clair LL (2012) Predicting the distribution of the air pollution sensitive lichen species Usnea hirta. The Lichenologist 44(4):511–521. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0024282912000060
Smith AB, Godsoe W, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Wang HH, Warren D (2019) Niche estimation above and below the species level. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 34(3):260–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.10.012
Smith JN, Kelly N, Renner IW (2021) Validation of presence‐only models for conservation planning and the application to whales in a multiple‐use marine park. Ecological Applications 31(1):e02214. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2214
Pradhan SP, Bista H, Lamsal B, Deshpande AG, Jones MR, Pandey BP, Weerakoon G, Baniya CB, Sharma S, Sutton MA (2026) Contrasting physico-chemical responses in Himalayan lichens as indicators of nitrogen and heavy metals stress. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety 310:119795. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2026.119795
Suwal MK, Shrestha KB, Guragain L, Shakya R, Shrestha K, Bhuju DR, Vetaas OR (2016) Land-use change under a warming climate facilitated upslope expansion of Himalayan silver fir (Abies spectabilis (D. Don) Spach). Plant Ecology 217(8):993–1002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-016-0624-7
Tatebe H, Ogura T, Nitta T, Komuro Y, Ogochi K, Takemura T, Sudo K, Sekiguchi M, Abe M, Saito F, et al. (2019) Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6. Geoscience Model Development 12(7):2727–2765. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019
Timbreza LP, Delos Reyes JL, Flores CHC, Perez RJLA, Stockel MAS, Santiago KAA (2017) Antibacterial activities of the lichen Ramalina and Usnea collected from Mt. Banoi, Batangas and Dahilayan, Bukidnon, against multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria. Austrian Journal of Mycology 26:27–42.
Thakur M, Bhardwaj S, Kumar V, Rodrigo-Comino J (2024) Lichens as effective bioindicators for monitoring environmental changes: A comprehensive review. Total Environment Advances 9:200085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.teadva.2023.200085
Weerakoon G, Ngo KM, Lum S, Lumbsch HT, Lücking R. (2015) On time or fashionably late for lichen discoveries in Singapore? Seven new species and nineteen new records of Graphidaceae from the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve, a highly urbanized tropical environment in South-East Asia. The Lichenologist 47(3):157–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0024282915000043
Wilkins TC, Baker TG, Hipperson-Jervis CJ, Thompson M (2025) Threatened species recovery actions 2025 baseline: technical report and spreadsheet user guide. Version 1.0, Joint Publication JP065. Natural England, UK. https://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/6106216194113536
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Jon Ray M. Maglonzo, Nikki Heherson A. Dagamac, Thomas Edison E. dela Cruz
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
